This morning, National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG) posted their 2006 financial results. Results were very impressive. Net income rose 36% from 2005 to $1.29B. Results were towards the upper end of the analyst estimate range, but fell short of the high estimate by about 1%. Hence, the stock did not blow up today, but actually did end close up by a modest 0.3% after spending most of the day in the red. This activity is not uncommon. The financial results of NBG were being watched like a hawk by the world marketplace and anticipating a very strong showing. The market then 'prices' this activity in for the most part, so if it ends up where everyone thought it was going to go, it tends to not move much or even decline, sometimes sharply. Tomorrow, on Feb. 22, NBG, will be presenting its 2007-2009 3 year outlook, which is supposed to continue to be very positive as already indicated by NBG, though we will not see full details until tomorrow. Long term, NBG is a great buy and when I say long term, I could be talking several years and I do not believe it will disappoint in 2007. While I do not see a double in 2007, I think NBG getting to $14-$16 sometime before the end of the year is possible. I am considering adding to my position.
It is officially dividend time for Ash Grove Cement (Pink Sheets: ASHG). This stock does not trade very often or at least post trades. I think that this stock trades daily behind the scenes, but the market makets will only post a trade in 100+ share blocks. So, I often think the 100 share blocks is a consolidated trade posting of many small trades. Anyway, activity always picks up around dividend time, which is the first week of March. ASHG is pretty sneaky about this - I am able to see their dividend declaration information at www.pinksheets.com, but it is not anywhere else to be seen. For 2007, dividend is $0.42 per share, a 5% increase over 2006, so that is good stuff.
Anyway, although trades may not occur, the inside market, or bid vs. ask spread, will sometimes change during the day. This is indicative of someone stepping in to buy or perhaps some trades took place behind the scenes and are not yet posted. There are very, very few shares out there, so 5-10 share trades, that seem to be invisible to the market, can effect the spread. I know this because I have personally experienced and seen this first hand. So, yesterday, Feb 20, ASHG opened up the morning at $217 x $220. During a meeting at work, I noticed the spread ticked up as high as $250 x $350!!! I almost lost it and took every ounce of sanity to keep my clothes on and to restrain from humping the desk.
Today, the stock closed as $280 per share, up 24.4% to an all time high. The closing spread was $240 x $272.50 (the bid ticked up from $230 to $240 in some small increments through the day) and the only trade that posted was 125 shares at $295. Now, I have seen the inside market change with some rigor during dividend times, but NEVER like this in the nearly 2 years I have owned and followed this security.
I think this one will pull back some post March dividend, but we will see. I still plan to add to my position, regardless, and somewhat regret not adding more than I did along the way, but again, it's always better to wish you bought more than wish you bought less! I am not sure what is in store for ASHG tomorrow or even for the rest of the year - I thought reaching $240 would take all year - I was wrong. Next year? Who knows....5 years? $700 per share. This is a fantastic retirement investment.
Seaboard Corporatiion (AMEX: SEB) had a very strong day. Up 2.6% to an all-time closing high of $2,154 and touched on an all time high of $2,190 today. Volume today was very strong - double than usual. I am not sure of the activity, but in 7-10 years, do not be surprised to see this one at $6,000-$8,000 per share. There is certainly long term value here and I am considering adding more to my position, but it's tough, because 1 share at this stage chews up $2,154 of capital, which is well, a lot. If I were to buy more, it would be for the real long haul. At some point, the appreciation on this one will have to take a breath and slow down, at least short term. I am trying to figure out what the deal is with this one in terms of the short-term activity and what is means long-term for the stock. Perhaps it is institutions loading up for the long haul as dry bulk shipping, one of SEB's divisions, was very hot today thanks to a mention on CNBC. There is no question SEB is going higher, but under what terms? Timeframe? Retracement? Short and sweet, I like the shareholders equity and cash this beast produces.
On other notes, I added to my positions in INFT at $3.57 and WNC at $16.99. INFT has disappointed me thus far, but it just has to go somewhere. I know, famous last words, but the last time I had that feeling, I was buying up shares of CECE at $3.75-$4.25. It took many years, and I was fortunate to start adding shares just in time, but the metrics said CECE absolutely had to go higher. It did...and ran to $12 last spring and today closed at an all time high of $17. I sold out last spring on the way up to $12.
Watching CECE today - I ALMOST jumped back in at $8-$9 several weeks ago, but I didn't. I wish I did, but honestly, the money I took out of CECE (and others that maybe I sold too soon) I put into other winners:
SVVS: in at $10, out at $17; now at $48.
ASTE: in at $23, out at $34; now at $39.
Thinking about this, did I miss the boat? Well, yes and no, but not really. I took the bulk of my CECE, SVVS, and ASTE proceeds and invested in big winners like ASHG, NBG, SEB and what will hopefully become big winners, like INFT and WNC. My patiences for investments has grown tremendously. I am amazed that I have held and accumulated ASHG for 20 months now, which is a world record for me. It is tough at a young age to have a huge time horizon mentality. Plus, with the in your face of 'gotta have it now' and my need to fend off my other situation, well, as much as I would have loved to have waited the extra year for CECE to turnaround, but honestly, last spring, I didn't have a year.
Going forward, it is important to look at the scope of your investments. Of course, you can never predict the market, but sometimes, bigger gains are out there if you can open your mindset to maybe waiting 3-5 years. I have somehow been able to do that with ASHG. I think part of that has to do with the lack of activity the stock has. Unlike other issues that move up and down, I am better able to keep the fear and greed out of my decision more than the others. Regardless, it is important to set your own price targets and goals - but more importantly, how long you are willing or might have to wait. Are you willing to wait 1 1/2 years for a 75% return? That is what it would have taken for ASHG. A 300% gain requires 18 months? Well, that is SVVS for you.
Opportunities for huge gains are out there, so look for them, and if you have to wait it out, then wait it out. Of course, never underestimate the power of taking profits and successfully re-investing the proceeds in other big winners. Plus, there is only so much capital to go around. If I would have kept my hands on CECE and didn't bother buying more ASHG or SEB, I'd be feeling just as silly, but, I'd really be in the same place I am now from a numbers standpoint.
Simplistically, if you take money out of an investment, make sure you have a solid purpose for it - specifically, another investment that you feel will perform well. If you sell, that's fine, just don't piss it away, because that is when seeing the stock 100% higher than you sold it at will get to you.
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